Jets on Offense
With the two-headed monster of Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones the Jets will ride their No. 1 run game hard and effectively. New York has averaged 43 carries and 188 yards the past seven games. The Colts feature an undersized speed defense and ranked 24th against the run this season. The power and speed combination of Greene and Jones should be able to run the ball right up the gut and over Indy, especially with an offensive line featuring all-Pros Alan Faneca and Nick Mangold. However if Indy is able to limit big plays on the ground all the pressure in the world falls on Mark Sanchez and the Jets offensive line to protect him. New York will need Sanchez to be nearly perfect to beat the Colts. Sanchez will have to be smart about taking advantage of his sports, whether it’s with play action or the occasional deep ball. Don’t expect the Jets to make heavy use of the passing game. As long as Sanchez shows consistency and avoids silly mistakes then New York has a shot at the upset. If however, he reverts back to inconsistency or to causing any costly turnovers for the Jets then the game will quickly slip away. New York’s offensive line also most continue giving their quarterback strong protection. If Dwight Freeney and Indy’s quick and talented pass rushers get into Sanchez’s face consistently, I have no doubt the turnovers will follow.
Colts on Offense
Indy is rarely going to run the ball against the Jets, and why should they? Joseph Addai rushed for only 23 yards on 11 carries against Baltimore and yet the Colts still dominated the game. In going up against the leagues top defense I’ll be shocked if Indy’s backs generate any momentum. The biggest storyline in this game will be the battle between New York’s pass rush/secondary and Manning and his amazing cast of receivers. The Jest arguably rely on pressure and blitzing more than any NFL team and it’s paid off for them during their great play over the last seven games. New York has recorded nine interceptions and sixteen sacks by nine different defenders. Rex Ryan won’t abandon heavy pressure just because it’s Manning under center. The Jest will be very creative and it will be up to an offensive line that allowed a league-low 13 sacks to correctly anticipate their actions. The Jets have gone eight games without giving up more than 14 points. While they may not be able to rattle the virtuoso QB they’re facing, I believe New York has demonstrated they have the personal and creativity to generate consistent pressure on Manning. He has thrown 16 interceptions, and as great has Manning is he’s capable of making mistakes. The Colt’s biggest advantage on the Jet’s defense is their receiving core, which goes five deep and features Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. The Jets aren’t going to be able to cover everyone, and with a QB as resourceful as Manning they could get burned a couple of times. Darrelle Revis needs to continue his amazing play on Wayne while FS Kerry Rhodes and SS Jim Leonhard have the task of handling the large, athletic Clark. Shutting down all of Indy’s weapons will be a gigantic accomplishment and if the Jets are unable to clearly do so, they will be going home empty-handed.
Peyton Manning vs. Mark Sanchez. Sometimes the difference between two teams is as simple as the QB matchup, and in the AFC Championship Game I believe that’s the case. Behind Manning the Colts have an offense that is extremely explosive and at best can only be contained. The Jets may have the best defense in football, but I do not see New York shutting down Indy like they did to the Bengals and Changers, nor do I see such a veteran, weak team making the mistakes those teams did to give the Jets the game. Meanwhile, New York cannot win with the run game along. Mark Sanchez will again look like a rookie instead of a seasoned against the athletic pass rush of Indy. The Jet’s defense will keep it close, but having a rookie QB will cause turnovers and make all the difference.
Colts 20-13
By Danny Atkinson