While the Ravens were busy running all over the Patriots last week, Indy’s starters effectively had their 3rd week off in a row after giving up on a 16-0 season. Will extra rest pay off for the Colts, or will Baltimore’s hot streak get the best of Peyton Manning’s squad?
Ravens on Offense
Everyone in Lucas Oil Stadium will know that the Ravens are looking to shake Indy with their power ground game on Saturday night. Look no further than the first play of last week’s game in New England, when Ray Rice ran 83 yards up the gut for the first of his 2 scores. Rice had 159 yards off 22 carries, but he wasn’t the only productive Ravens back; Willis McGahee and FB Le’Ron McClain had a TD a piece. Although Rice and McGahee had just 96 collective rushing yards vs. Indy in Week 11, the duo should have their way against the 24th ranked rush D (126.5 yards per game allowed). The Colts will rely on their speed to swarm to the ball and keep Rice from getting hot early and controlling the pace. A big question for Baltimore will be Joe Flacco’s play, who threw just 10 times for 4 completions and an INT. Unless the Ravens go up 24-0 in the 1st quarter, it’s safe to say that Flacco will look to spread the field. The key for the Colts will be rattling the young QB, namely with pressure from Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. If they can rush Flacco effectively without too many blitzes, they’ll have a good handle on Baltimore’s pass attack. Flacco has to be able to absorb that pressure and dump it off to Todd Heap and Rice, who seem to get better separation than any of the receivers.
Colts on Offense
As transparent as the Ravens’ game plan is on offense, the Colts’ will be even more so. The NFL’s worst rushing team in the regular season won’t have much success against a Baltimore D that prides itself on crushing the run. A well-rested Joseph Addai will be at hand for blocking and receiving at the very least. Addai’s services will be much-needed vs. the Ravens’ heavy blitzing, led by Terrell Suggs, who had a sack and forced fumble on Tom Brady. If Peyton Manning can get protection from his O-line, he should be able to pick apart Baltimore’s secondary. Dallas Clark’s versatility will present serious problems inside and out for the Ravens in coverage. The ex-factor for the Ravens has to be Ed Reed, who will probably have to shadow Reggie Wayne deep as he did with Randy Moss (according to Jason Feller of NFL.com). Reed is back in full-form and his instinctive knack for anticipating passers can lead to a rare Peyton turnover. But if Peyton gets time, he’ll be able to go through his reads and find the 3rd or 4th option, who will likely be Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon.
In Week 11, Flacco was picked off in the red zone in the midst of a game-winning drive. Indy went on to pull off a 17-15 win. Expect the Ravens to manage the game on the ground, but if the Colts are down late, Jim Caldwell will be confident with the ball in the hands of the NFL’s best closer.
Prediction
Indianapolis 28
Baltimore 24
