The Jets are your prototypical hard-hitting, defensive-minded power football team who like to pound opposing teams into submission behind a clock-milking running attack and low-risk quarterback play. So far, it’s working: the Jets lead the AFC East and appear on the threshold of another playoff berth behind a defense that ranks in the top 4 in points and yards allowed. But while the Jets may be tied for the best record in the league, most of their domination has been enacted against the some of the worst teams in the league. In fact, 8 of their 9 wins have come against sub .500 teams. In their 3 games against winning teams, their lone win was back in week 2 against the Patriots.

The Patriots, on the other hand, are another one of those greater-than-the-sum-of-their-parts teams that have blessed New England for the last decade, a team that seemingly gets by on smoke and mirrors instead of talent. A simple look at the numbers confirms the claim: the Patriots have the 2nd worst defense in the league, and their offensive yard totals only rank in the middle third of the league. Of course, numbers can be deceiving, as the Patriots are blessed with one of the best coaches and quarterbacks in the league, two things that allow them to maximize their talent in ways that many teams cannot.

But beyond the way Tom Brady makes everyone around him better, and beyond the way Bill Belichick gameplans in a manner that hides his team’s many weakness, the 2010 Patriots have developed a knack for making big plays at the right time, resulting in a +11 in the turnover department. Big plays can be fool’s gold because they’re hard to replicate on a week-to-week basis, but at the same time big plays tend to separate the good teams from the bad ones. So far this season, the Patriots have been good because they’ve been able to come up with timely turnovers.

Super Prediction: while the Patriots have the worst pass defense in the league, the Jets will must be careful attacking them through the air as the Patriots also have 4th most interceptions in the league, picks that lead to more possessions and more points for the Patriots league-leading scoring offense. And though the Jets have dominated at times on defense, they rank towards the bottom half of the league in terms of sacks and interceptions, meaning they’re likely to lose the turnover battle. In the end, the Patriots will make just enough plays to stay ahead, winning 24-17.

This contest looks to be a bruising, old-time, NFC battle between two teams fighting for the same opportunity: a birth in Super Bowl XLIV. Both teams are evenly matched, and playing well as they enter the home stretch of the regular season. In such a closely contested game, turnovers, special teams, and penalties could end up being the difference.

When the Falcons Have the Ball: in the ATL they do whatever they want on offense. You want a big play? Fine, toss it over the top to 1000-yard receiver Roddy White, an athletic, high IQ wide out with incredible speed and catching ability. Want to slice a defense across the middle? Look no further than 10-time Pro Bowler Tony Gonzalez. Feel like pounding the ground and racking up time of possession, just hand the ball to Michael Turner and get out the way. All those weapons, all under the control of Pro Bowl QB Matt Ryan, have made Atlanta one of NFL’s best offenses this season.

How the Packers will try to stop ATL: the Pack have relied on the big-play talents of sack master Clay Matthews and Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson to come up with sacks, interceptions, and fumble recoveries all year long, things that have contributed to the 2nd best scored-against average in the NFL. Against Atlanta, they’ll need to speed up the game on the edges and force mistakes, hopefully preventing the kind of clock-killing drives the Falcons specialize in. If anything, the Packers sometimes struggle against a power running attack, and that might lead them to crowd the line of scrimmage and dare Atlanta to beat them deep, using physical bump-and-run coverage to mess up Atlanta’s timing-based passing game.

When the Packers Have the Ball: the Pack looked to be just as stacked as ATL when the season began, but injuries to their starting RB and TE have deprived of what was once a well-rounded attack. Minus a consistent running threat, the Packers have been forced to rely as much as ever on the throwing arm of Pro Bowler Aaron Rodgers. And while they sometimes go through stretches of ineffectiveness, the last few weeks have been spectacular displays of offensive prowess. Even though teams know it’s coming, they haven’t been able to stop the Pack’s passing attack. The reason? Aaron Rodgers might be the best in the game right now.

How the Falcons will try to stop GB: Atlanta has had an up-and-down defensive year, and they have a propensity to give up huge passing numbers. But while teams have had their way through the air, Atlanta has also shown a knack for making a big play down the stretch, intercepting 15 passes so far this season. So while teams can pass against the Falcons, it has rarely translated to big point totals, giving Atlanta the league 7th best scored-against defense. But against a team who wants to pass (and rarely looks to run), the Falcons will be pressured to come up with turnovers this Sunday. If their season averages hold up, they might be in for a long afternoon against Aaron Rodgers and the Packer’s passing attack

Super Prediction: this one will come down to the stretch and by decided by a few big play, but Atlanta’s home field advantage and ground attack takes just enough air out of the ball to allow the Falcons to squeeze by Green Bay by a score of 27-23.

On paper, this week’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and the San Francisco 49ers (3-6) appears lopsided, but a closer look reveals some startling similarities. For starters, looking at the final margin of victory, each team has been involved with a lot of close contests. For the Niners, 4 of their 6 losses have come by a total of 11 points, while for the Bucs, 4 of their 6 wins have come by a total of 10 points. So while both teams are very young, and susceptible to making mistakes of inexperience, it seems like the Bucs have a knack for finishing close games while the Niners have a knack of coming up just a little short.

What’s caused two young, inexperienced teams with roughly the same talent level to have two vastly different seasons to date? Well, in retrospect it’s easy to see why—coaching. While the Bucs have been on the same page since Day 1 with head coach Raheem Morris mentioned prominently as a Coach of the Year candidate, the Niners have had one mini-drama after another, leading 3 players to quit the team, the offensive coordinator to be fired, and the starting quarterback to be benched, all amongst rumblings that head coach Mike Singletary is simply unqualified to be an NFL coach.

That said, Singletary and the Niners seem like they may have righted the ship mid-season. The promotion of Mike Johnson to offensive coordinator and former Heisman winner Troy Smith to starting QB has energized the offense and brought a renewed sense of confidence and swagger amongst playmakers such as Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree, culminating in wins in 3 of their last 4 games.

Prediction: 49er QB Troy Smith is 2-0 since taking over as the starter, and the offense had more big plays in last 2 weeks than it had in first 7 games combined. Given his lack of snaps and overall playing time in the NFL, Tampa Bay will have little game film to game plan against, and may get caught off guard against somebody who shown a flair for turning broken plays into big gains. With starting tackle Joe Staley out with a broken leg, the Bucs have an opening to put pressure on the inexperienced Smith, though Tampa has only managed 8 sacks through 9 games. Even if they can’t sack Smith, Tampa has shown quite a knack for forcing interceptions, and could be successful forcing Smith into mistakes As a team that wants to establish the run and protect a young QB, the Niners should have an easy time establishing a ground game against the 31st ranked run defense in the NFL, especially if they continue to mix up the run and pass as well as they have recently. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay will attempt to attack the Niners over the air, and will look to take advantage of TE Kellen Winslow against San Francisco’s young safeties, a group that has shown a susceptibility to give up big plays over the top. While the Bucs have a good stable of young, tough runners, look for the 49ers to stop the run, as they’ve limited teams to a 93 yds/game in the last 4 weeks. 49ers win 23-20 on a late FG.

In week 9, there was no bigger upset than Cleveland’s dominant 34-14 win against New England. Using a power running attack and forcing a few timely turnovers, the Browns had the Patriots on their heels the entire day, overplaying the supposed best team in the league. Let’s take a look back and see if there was any way to see this coming.

Strength of Record
This match-up looked lopsided prior to the game, based on each team’s record and recent history. The Patriots boasted a league-best 6-1 record coming into the game, including their last 3 wins that all came down to 4th quarter execution and a few timely plays, some of which were simply luck or bad/dumb plays by the other team.

On the flipside, the Browns—a historically bad team with only 2 winning seasons in the last decade—came into the contest at 2-5. They lost their first 3 games by an average of 4 points, and could have won all 3 contests had the ball bounced a little differently. As it turned out, the Patriots weren’t quite as good as their record, nor were Browns as bad as their record might have indicated, something that could have been determined pre-game had the quality of each win been factored into the equation.

Context of the Game
Each game is a discreet entity, but each week has its own special space in the context of the season. For the Patriots, the Browns game had all the hallmarks of a trap game. After 3 weeks of triumph and a seeming knack for winning close games in the fourth quarter, the Patriots were probably looking forward to next week’s tilt with a powerhouse Pittsburgh squad, assuming they’d gut another close game with ball control and a few big plays against a bad Cleveland team.

Cleveland, on the other hand, had two things going in their favor heading into this game. First, they had just scored their first major victory of the season over the New Orleans Saints two weeks prior, giving their young team much-needed confidence after many early season setbacks. Second, they were coming off a bye week, something that undoubtedly gave them a renewed sense of focus and health coming into the game.

Chess Match
Football as much as any sport is affected by the quality of coaching and week-to-week strategy sessions. After the Browns win on Sunday, almost every player commented on the strength of Cleveland’s game plan, with New England head coach Bill Belichick going as far as saying he was out-coached. While Belichick’s reputation as a ‘genius’ is well-accepted these days, Cleveland’s ability to out-strategize the genius was foreseeable, based on the aforementioned two weeks of preparation time, as well as head coach Eric Mangini’s 9 years of experience under Belichick as an assistant coach. Not only was Mangini 3-1 as a head coach coming off a bye week, he knows New England better than anyone in the league and had 2 weeks to come up with a game plan. This game was tailor-made for a Cleveland victory.

Could Have Seen It Coming
Hindsight might be 20-20, but the biggest upset of Week 9 could have been predicted with a little research. Looking back, the Patriots weren’t as good as their record, and at this point of their schedule they were prime for a letdown game against a team perceived to be bad. The Browns, after stumbling through some tough early season loses, weren’t as bad as their record and at home coming off a bye with a head coach intimately familiar with their upcoming opponent, it should have been pretty clear that they had a good chance to come out victorious. And they did.